March 19, 2025
3 Minute Read
Croatia v France: Nations League Preview & Betting Tips
Croatia and France meet on Thursday night at Stadion Poljud in the first leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final, with both sides looking to take an early advantage before the return fixture in Paris.
Didier Deschamps’ side are among the tournament favourites after topping their group, while Croatia are hoping to upset the odds on home soil. Can Zlatko Dalić’s men put it up against the 2021 champions? Let’s break down the key angles and best bets.
Match Preview
📅 Date: Thursday, March 20, 2025
📍 Venue: Stadion Poljud, Split
⏰ Kick-off: 19:45 UTC
Croatia’s Road to the Knockouts
Croatia weren’t at their best in the group phase, finishing second in Group A1 with just two wins from six matches (W2, D2, L2). A six-point gap behind Portugal showed the gulf in consistency, but the 2023 runners-up have proven they can rise to big occasions.
Zlatko Dalić’s squad still boasts plenty of experience, with Luka Modric and Mateo Kovačić pulling the strings in midfield, but defensive frailties remain a concern. They’ve conceded in 4 of their last 6 Nations League matches, including a 1-0 loss to Scotland in November.
France’s Form & Firepower
Les Bleus, on the other hand, bounced back strongly from a poor start. After losing their opener to Italy, France won four of their next five to comfortably top Group A2, finishing above Italy, Belgium, and Israel.
Didier Deschamps’ squad is stacked with attacking quality, and Kylian Mbappé is in scintillating form, fresh off a brace for Real Madrid against Villarreal. With Ousmane Dembélé and Michael Olise also expected to start, France will be looking to punish any Croatian defensive lapses.
Betting Odds & Predictions
🏆 Match Odds
- Croatia to win – 3.65
- Draw – 3.30
- France to win – 2.09
France are favourites to take the first leg, and given their strong away record- beating Belgium and Italy in the group stage, it’s easy to see why.
🔢 Recent Head-to-Head
France have won 3 of the last 5 head-to-heads. However, Croatia have remained unbeaten in the last two encounters, including a 1-0 victory in Paris in 2022. Both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings, so backing goals could be another betting angle.
🎯 Key Betting Picks
✅ France to Win- 2.09 – Les Bleus are in strong form and boast a far superior squad.
✅ Over 1.5 France Goals- 2.08 – France netted 2+ goals in four of their last five Nations League games.
✅ Mbappé to Score- 2.40 – The Real Madrid star has been involved in seven goals in his last six appearances.
📊 Score Prediction: Croatia 1-2 France
Players to Watch
🇭🇷 Croatia – Luka Modric
The 39-year-old maestro remains the heart of this Croatian side. His control in midfield will be crucial if they are to stand a chance.
🇫🇷 France – Kylian Mbappé
The Real Madrid forward is unstoppable at the moment. Expect him to exploit Croatia’s backline with his pace and movement.
Team News & Predicted Lineups
Croatia:
Zlatko Dalić is without Igor Matanović and Luka Sučić, while Duje Ćaleta-Car could replace Josip Šutalo in defence.
🔹 Predicted XI: Livaković; Stanišić, Ćaleta-Car, Gvardiol, Sosa; Modrić, Kovačić, Majer; Perišić, Pašalić, Kramarić.
France:
Eduardo Camavinga is back after a one-game suspension and should be in contention to start.
🔹 Predicted XI: Maignan; Koundé, Konaté, Saliba, Hernández; Tchouaméni, Camavinga; Dembélé, Olise, Barcola; Mbappé.
Final Thoughts
This will be a tough test for Croatia, but France’s squad depth and firepower should give them the edge. Les Bleus have been clinical on the road, and with Mbappé leading the charge, they should head into the second leg with an advantage.
Can Croatia spring a surprise, or will France take control? We’ll find out on Thursday night.
Odds are correct at the time of writing.
