March 19, 2025
2 Minute Read
Italy v Germany: Nations League Preview & Betting Tips
Italy (2.75) and Germany (2.75) go head-to-head at the San Siro on Thursday night in the first leg of their UEFA Nations League quarter-final. With a spot in the semi-finals at stake and both teams evenly matched, this one has all the makings of a must-watch encounter.
Match Preview: Italy v Germany
📅 Date: Thursday, March 20, 2025
📍 Venue: San Siro, Milan
⏰ Kick-off: 19:45 UTC
Italy finished second in their Nations League group, winning four of their six matches, only missing out on top spot behind France on goal difference. Their last competitive outing was a 3-1 loss to Les Bleus, but prior to that, the Azzurri had gone five games unbeaten.
Germany, on the other hand, topped their group in dominant fashion, finishing ahead of the Netherlands, Hungary, and Bosnia & Herzegovina without suffering a single defeat. Since losing to Spain in extra time in the Euro 2024 quarter-finals, Germany have been unbeaten.
To make things even more interesting, Germany hold the upper hand in recent head-to-head meetings, going unbeaten in the last six clashes between the two sides.
Head-to-Head & Recent Form
- Germany are unbeaten in their last six matches against Italy.
- Only one of the last eight H2Hs have seen a clean sheet- BTTS has landed in seven of them.
- Germany thrashed Italy 5-2 the last time these sides met in the Nations League in 2022.
- Italy have lost just one of their last ten home matches.
With both sides typically involved in high-scoring games when they meet, goals could be on the cards again.
Predicted Lineups & Team News
Italy
The hosts will be without Federico Dimarco, who remains sidelined with a hamstring injury. However, Sandro Tonali, fresh off Newcastle’s Carabao Cup triumph, will be key in midfield.
🇮🇹 Predicted XI: Donnarumma; Buongiorno, Calafiori, Bastoni; Di Lorenzo, Tonali, Frattesi, Barella, Cambiaso; Retegui, Kean.
Germany
Germany will be missing Florian Wirtz (suspended) and Marc-André ter Stegen (injury), while Kai Havertz is also unavailable. Jamal Musiala remains the key playmaker for Julian Nagelsmann’s side.
🇩🇪 Predicted XI: Nübel; Kimmich, Schlotterbeck, Rüdiger, Mittelstädt; Andrich, Groß; Sané, Musiala, Lewelling; Kleindienst.
Betting Tips & Predictions
🔹 Both Teams to Score– Yes – 1.79 – Seven of the last eight meetings have seen both teams find the net.
🔹 Over 2.5 Goals– 2.09 – Their last Nations League clash ended 5-2, and recent meetings have been fond of goals.
🔹 Jamal Musiala to score anytime– 4.00 – The Bayern Munich star is a constant attacking threat and Germany’s most creative outlet.
📊 Score Prediction: Italy 1-2 Germany
Final Thoughts
With both teams boasting attacking talent and recent history pointing towards goals, this should be an entertaining quarter-final. Germany’s strong head-to-head record and unbeaten streak make them slight favorites, but Italy’s home advantage keeps things wide open.
Will the Azzurri defend their turf, or will Germany continue their dominance? We’ll find out under the lights at the San Siro.
