April 3, 2025
2 Minute Read
Joyce v Hrgovic Prediction, Odds & Fight Breakdown
Joe Joyce and Filip Hrgovic face off this Saturday night at the Co-Op Live Arena in Manchester in a clash that could define the next chapter of each fighter’s career. Both are coming off defeats, both have something to prove, and neither can afford another setback.
Originally, the bout was set to see the Juggernaut take on British rival Dillian Whyte. But on March 4, Whyte was forced to pull out of the fight due to a horrific finger injury. A replacement was quickly found in Croatian Hrgovic, who steps in to headline this weekend’s main event on just a month’s notice.
Career Paths Diverging
Joe Joyce enters the bout with more miles on the clock. Now 39, the British heavyweight was once on the verge of a title shot after a run of statement wins, including knockouts over Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker. But consecutive stoppage defeats to Zhilei Zhang and a recent points loss to Derek Chisora have left questions about his durability and future.
For Hrgovic, it’s a different story. The 32-year-old Croatian rose steadily through the ranks, with a controversial win over Zhang in 2022 his most notable result. But a cut handed him his first pro defeat against Dubois in 2024, and he hasn’t fought since. He returns at 17-1, looking to re-establish momentum.
Key Stats
- Hrgovic has a 2-inch reach advantage
- Joyce is typically 15kg heavier
- Both fighters are coming off losses
- Joyce is seven years older
- 86.5% of their combined bouts have ended via knockout
- Joyce has 15 knockouts in 16 wins
What to Expect on Fight Night
Hrgovic is the bookies’ favourite and it’s easy to see why. He’s younger, quicker, and less worn from damage. Joyce’s trademark resilience has started to fade, and unless he changes tactics, he risks walking into another late-round stoppage.
Look for Hrgovic to stay patient early, keep Joyce at range with the jab, and increase pressure as the fight wears on. For Joyce, it has to be a fast start. He can’t afford to soak up punishment, waiting for an opening that may never come.
Betting Odds
- Filip Hrgovic: 1.23
- Joe Joyce: 3.85
Stephen’s Verdict
I fancy Hrgovic to win this late between rounds 7–12. The Croat has the tools to dismantle Joyce gradually and finish it late. That’s where the value lies in this one.
🥊 Fight To Go The Distance- No- 1.50
🥊 Over 8.5 Total Rounds- 2.00
Odds correct at time of writing.
