March 18, 2025
3 Minute Read
UEFA Nations League Quarter-Finals: Preview & Betting Tips
The UEFA Nations League returns this week with four tasty Quarter-Final ties. With a revamped knockout format featuring eight teams battling it out across two legs, the road to the final begins now. Reigning European champions Spain are looking to add another trophy to their collection, but in-form nations like France, Germany, and Portugal will be eying their own success.
Let’s break down the quarter-final matchups, outright winner odds, and what’s at stake.
🏆 The Road to the Nations League Final
For the first time, the Nations League knockout phase has been expanded, with four quarter-final ties being played over two legs. The teams that finished first and second in their League A groups now go head-to-head for a spot in the semi-finals, with extra time and penalties in play if needed after the second leg.
The winners of Italy v Germany will host the final four, with semi-finals set for June 4-5, 2025, before the Nations League final on June 8.
Here’s how the quarter-final ties are set:
Quarter-Final Fixtures
📅 First Leg – Thursday, March 20
🇮🇹 Italy v Germany
🇳🇱 Netherlands v Spain
🇭🇷 Croatia v France
🇩🇰 Denmark v Portugal
📅 Second Leg – Sunday, March 23
🇩🇪 Germany v Italy
🇪🇸 Spain v Netherlands
🇫🇷 France v Croatia
🇵🇹 Portugal v Denmark
⏰ All matches kick off at 19:45 UTC
🏆 Who Are the Nations League Favourites?
Spain, the current European and Nations League champions, enter as favourites, while Germany and France are also seen as strong contenders. Here are the latest outright odds:
- Spain – 4.00
- Germany – 4.50
- France – 4.50
- Portugal – 5.00
- Italy – 10.00
- Netherlands – 15.00
- Denmark – 17.00
- Croatia– 18.00
🔎 Quarter-Final Match Previews & Betting Insights
🇮🇹 Italy vs. Germany 🇩🇪
📍 San Siro, Milan
🔢 Match Odds: Italy 2.70 | Draw 3.20 | Germany 2.70
A massive showdown awaits as Italy hosts Germany in Milan. Italy secured their spot by finishing second in their group behind France, losing just once in the process. They’ve made the Nations League finals in the past two editions and will be desperate for another shot.
Germany, on the other hand, have never reached this stage of the competition but are flying under Julian Nagelsmann. They’ve won 10 of their last 15 matches (D4, L1), with their only defeat coming against Spain at Euro 2024. However, Germany haven’t beaten Italy in Italy since 1986.
📌 Stat to Watch: Germany are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Italy (W3, D3).
💰 Betting Pick: Germany to Qualify– 1.51
🇳🇱 Netherlands vs. Spain 🇪🇸
📍 De Kuip, Rotterdam
🔢 Match Odds: Netherlands 3.05 | Draw 3.35 | Spain 2.35
Spain are riding high, coming into this match unbeaten in their last 16 competitive internationals, winning 14 of these. The Netherlands, meanwhile, finished second in their group behind Germany but will take confidence from their strong home record.
📌 Stat to Watch: The Netherlands have lost just one of their last seven meetings with Spain (W3, D3).
💰 Betting Pick: Spain to Win & Over 2.5 Goals– 3.90
🇭🇷 Croatia vs. France 🇫🇷
📍 Stadion Poljud, Split
🔢 Match Odds: Croatia 3.65 | Draw 3.30 | France 2.09
Croatia narrowly made it through to the knockouts after picking up just two points from their final three group-stage matches. They’ll need to step up if they want to repeat their 2023 Nations League final run.
France, winners of the 2021 edition, failed to make it out of the group last time but look like serious contenders again. Didier Deschamps’ side are unbeaten in 5 of the last 6 games against Croatia, though the most recent fixture went 1-0 in Croatia’s favour.
📌 Stat to Watch: 4 of the last 5 matches between these sides has seen both teams score.
💰 Betting Pick: Both Teams to Score & France to Win– 4.30
🇩🇰 Denmark vs. Portugal 🇵🇹
📍 Parken Stadium, Copenhagen
🔢 Match Odds: Denmark 3.50 | Draw 3.30 | Portugal 2.13
Denmark are struggling for form, winless in their last four outings, and face a Portugal team that cruised through the group stage unbeaten.
Cristiano Ronaldo, now on 217 international caps, remains a key player. He finished as the top scorer in League A of the Nations League with five goals.
📌 Stat to Watch: Portugal have won four of their last five meetings with Denmark.
💰 Betting Pick: Portugal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals– 2.80
🔮 Final Thoughts: Who Makes the Semi-Finals?
These quarter-finals promise drama, goals, and plenty of betting opportunities. Based on form and history, here’s who I expect to reach the semi-finals:
✅ Germany
✅ Spain
✅ France
✅ Portugal
